Where Stock Returns Really Come From: Payouts, Valuations, and Growth
When investors look to the future, one of the hardest questions to answer is: What kind of returns can we expect from the stock market? In the short run, predicting equity performance is notoriously difficult. Market sentiment shifts quickly, economic data can surprise, and headlines often drive prices in ways that defy logic.But over longer periods, the fog begins to lift. Equity returns can be broken down into three clear and measurable components: shareholder payouts, valuation changes, and long-term earnings growth. While we can’t forecast next month or even next year with much accuracy, these building blocks provide a framework…
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