Should You Aim for 100% Success in Monte Carlo Retirement Simulations?
Monte Carlo simulations are a staple in retirement planning. They run thousands of potential future market scenarios to estimate how likely your portfolio is to last throughout retirement.Monte Carlo projections can generate a number of outputs but one of the most commonly discussed is the Probability of Success. It goes like this: "Based on our assumptions, you have a 90% Probability of Success". One question often comes up next: What about the other 10%?This portion of the projection has been dubbed the "Probability of Failure" and can be a confusing or scary thing to see. But what exactly does “failure” mean? And is it really bad…
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